The shift in the Phoenix Real Estate Market has left some real estate agents with a major identity crisis. After years of rescuing underwater homeowners, dealing the evil banks and constantly changing government regulations, we are left in a fairly normal market. What do we do know!!?
I guess, when it gets right down to it, we all have to adjust to this new “normal” market. Once the Post Traumatic Stress Disorder starts to wind down, anyway!!
Don’t be afraid to reach out for help during these changing times…
To celebrate 8 years in real estate, I present to you:
The History of Phoenix Real Estate (since 2005).
It’s been quite a wild ride since I got my real estate license…let’s catch up, shall we? For all practical purposes, our Phoenix real estate market has experience an economic disaster that is quite similar to a Category 5 hurricane. And much like New Orleans experienced with Hurricane Katrina, we have endured different phases of this experience.
2005: The Tasty Wave phase when everyone grabs a board and jumps in – regardless of any actual ability to surf or even swim
2006: The denial phase – oh, haw bad can it really get?
2007: The phase where we start to see how bad it can really get.
2008-2010: The apocalyptic flood phase, where it’s even worse than we thought
2011: The phase where everyone literally scratches their head and says to themselves, I have no idea what to do now.
2012: The calvery (aka investors with cash) arrive!
2013: Present day, looking a lot more normal!
I am soooo behind on posting videos, I decided to make one super-sized three-for-one special featuring a recap of the 2012 Phoenix Real Estate Market (zzzzzz), and word or three on New Year’s Resolutions and a Very Special Home Tour.
A public service announcement for buyers and their agents who are agonizing about whether or not to send in that offer to purchase one of my listings…HINT: You can’t win if you don’t play!
Our Phoenix real estate market has been favoring the sellers over the buyers for quite some time. I hear over and over again about how buyers missed the boat because they waited too long to submit an offer. The sooner the better these days! This isn’t news! But I get a lot of phone calls that almost seem like the agent is looking for a reason NOT to submit an offer:
Is the property still available?
Do you have any cash offers?
Where do I need to be?
I don’t want to waste your (my) time
Sure, it’s possible you are calling at the exact moment the seller has accepted an offer, but if it’s listed as active, it’s probably active. Sure, I might have a cash offer, and it might be $30K below the asking price. Think the seller is happy about that? Where you need to be is writing your client’s highest and best offer – my job is not to rat out my seller, ok? Wasting my time? You mean, like this phone conversation we are having right now?
JUST WRITE THE OFFER! Because more times than not, the offer never comes over after all the quizzing and someone else gets the house. And make sure your buyers know that too – this is not the time to overthink…it’s the time to be ready for quick decisive action.
Yes! I have a new fancy camera! A Canon T3i to be exact and I love it, I still have a lot to learn, but here’s my first attempt at video with the new hardware. Hope it brings you a “clearer picture” of what’s happening in Phoenix real estate!
July’s numbers are not all that different the June’s, but there are some indications that things are rapidly heading towards a wonderful state of boring. The price increase we have experienced over the last year – 28% bump up – puts us right about where we should have been have the real estate market truly followed the laws of supply and demand last year – it didn’t, so prices adjusted in a much more dramatic fashion.
Buyers — don’t be afraid! Even FHA buyers are getting into new homes! Almost 20% of last months sales were FHA buyers and I suspect that number will start to go up. 34% purchased using a conventional loan. We aren’t going to talk about the cash buyers!
Oh, and that Foreclosure Tsunami? Forget about it! It ain’t happening. As I have been steadily reporting for months – years! – now, foreclosed homes are sold as fast as they come in – 60% at the auction and only a 6.3% presence in the market. Notices of Defaults are down to 2007 levels, and short sales are keeping many home off the auction block.
Here in the world of Phoenix real estate, we avoid mentioning the A-word as it strikes fear in the hearts of real estate participants who must face this adversary on the course of the transaction…dare I speak the work aloud? Appraisal!
In a transitional market like we have right now, one that is experiencing a 20% increase in prices in a 6-month period, appraisals can be the kiss of death. Appraisals must follow conservative guidelines imposed by lenders and those guidelines tend to put the brakes on rapidly increasing prices. It an be hard when prices are increasing to obtain an appraisal that matches obvious market value.
Many sellers these days face a choice: Choose a lower cash offer that is not bound by an appraisal, a higher, market value offer with a loan and a motivated buyer who might work to bridge that appraisal gap, or a high-priced and high risk financed offer with a buyer who is maxed and probably can’t participate if the appraisal doesn’t go through.
Best bet? Work with your realtor to understand the current market trends and how the appraisal may affect the outcome and be prepared with a plan if the appraisal falls short.
FYI, most appraisals are not swayed by cookies! Just so you know!
It’s the $64,000,000 questions these days as values have shot up 20% since the beginning of the year. How much is YOUR house worth?
Despite the fact that there are many online resources available that can provide an answer to that question – Zillow, bank websites, county tax records, and more – how accurate are those estimates? Because they are estimates, and ballpark ones at that.
I am sure you have figured out that the only way to get an accurate market value for your home – one that includes all the intangibles that affect the price a buyer would be willing to pay for your home – is to talk to an experienced real estate agent…like me!
The real estate market in Phoenix continues to return to a more “normal state” whatever that means. Prices are edging up especially in price ranges below $250K, and inventory has dropped below the 2 month mark. Yikes!
Think the shadow inventory is going to replenish the market – don’t be so sure. However you look at it, we are going to be low on inventory for a while. Buyers: get over the fantasy that another big price drop is going to happen here in Phoenix. All signs point to higher prices.
For those folks waiting for the bottom of the Phoenix Real Estate market – it has come and gone. Here’s a little wake-up call from San Tan Valley that demonstrates what we can expect home prices to do in 2012.
Buyers, it’s really time to come down off the fence…seriously.